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Do you know which metal’s price is most affected by new technologies?

In 2024, tin prices remain volatile, but have shown an upward trend due to growing demand in the technology industry and supply constraints. Over the past two years, the price has ranged between $30,000 and $50,000 per tonne, even exceeding $40,000/t in 2023, driven by inventory shortages and growing demand from emerging industries, such as semiconductors and renewable energy.

The tin price forecast according to BMI expects tin prices to ‘follow a steady upward trend over the next decade’, potentially reaching $45,000 by 2033.

This increase is driven by supply disruptions in Myanmar and Indonesia, along with growing demand from the semiconductor, electronics, artificial intelligence and solar panel industries.

Demand and Technology

Tin remains central to global technology forecasts, particularly for its role in electronics, where tin soldering remains essential. According to a recent report, MIT maintains its prediction that tin will be one of the metals most impacted by technological advancement, being used in energy storage devices, sensors and solar panels.

In addition, 5G technology and the Internet of Things (IoT) are further driving demand for tin, as these sectors require large quantities of electronic components that rely on tin-copper solder.

Supply and Production

Tin supply has shown signs of fragility in recent years. In 2024, major producing regions such as Indonesia, China and Myanmar continue to dominate the market, but reserves are beginning to decline, putting additional pressure on prices. Operations in Peru and Bolivia have slightly increased their share, while Alphamin Resources, with operations in the DRC, continues to produce around 5% of the world’s tin.

Deposit types have not changed much, but mining difficulties and operating costs have increased, particularly for cassiterite sulphide deposits, which require complex and less cost-effective processes.

Recycling and Sustainability

Tin recycling has improved slightly, but remains a challenge. It is estimated that 25% of tin in use will come from recycling in 2024, up from 21% in previous years. However, the recovery of tin from electronic products remains low due to the short lifetime of many devices and the technical difficulties in extracting the metal.

Inventories and Global Supply

Tin inventories on major exchanges, such as the LME and SHFE, remain extremely low, with only 3-5 days of supply available on the market. This has resulted in episodes of backwardation, due to high demand for this material, where current prices exceed future prices, signalling a growing unmet need.

Foresight

The tin market continues to project significant growth. Global demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of between 3% and 5% until 2030, driven by the rise of renewable energy and electric vehicles. As semiconductors and next-generation batteries increase their market share, tin is positioned to remain crucial in the global technology supply chain.

This updated context shows that tin remains a strategic metal in 2024, both because of its growing demand and the challenges in sourcing and recycling.